The 500-to-1 run is over
Any $100 ticket on the Chicago White Sox to win the World Series at +50000 was officially eliminated Saturday night in Cleveland.
That ticket would have made a $50,000 profit and returned $50,100 if Chicago had won the championship.
It was never likely to happen. That was the meaning of 500-to-1 odds.
But the ticket survived much longer than anyone expected.
The White Sox finished the regular season 84-78, swept Houston in the Wild Card Series and won the first two games of their Division Series in Cleveland. They reached Game 5 with a chance to advance to the American League Championship Series.
Then Cleveland’s pitching took over.
The Guardians shut out Chicago 2-0 in the deciding game. Gavin Williams struck out 12, José Ramírez hit a two-run home run and four Cleveland pitchers combined to allow only three hits.
The White Sox struck out 21 times, setting a postseason record for a nine-inning game.
The 500-to-1 run was over.
The board on Sunday morning
The World Series futures board now has four teams left.
DraftKings’ World Series prices were checked Sunday morning, October 11:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: +125
- Milwaukee Brewers: +300
- Tampa Bay Rays: +300
- Cleveland Guardians: +650
That is the entire active field.
The White Sox, Yankees, Braves and Padres have been removed after losing their playoff series.
These prices are only a snapshot. Futures odds can change after every game, injury or pitching announcement.
What a $100 wager would return
Positive American odds tell you how much profit a successful $100 wager would make.
Dodgers at +125
A $100 wager would make a $125 profit.
The total return would be $225, including the original stake.
The raw implied probability is approximately 44.4%.
Brewers at +300
A $100 wager would make a $300 profit.
The total return would be $400.
The raw implied probability is 25%.
Rays at +300
The calculation is the same as Milwaukee’s.
A $100 wager would make a $300 profit and return $400 in total.
The raw implied probability is 25%.
Guardians at +650
A $100 wager would make a $650 profit.
The total return would be $750.
The raw implied probability is approximately 13.3%.
Why the probabilities add up to more than 100%
Add those four implied probabilities together and the result is approximately 107.8%.
That does not mean there is a 107.8% chance that someone will win the World Series. Only one team can win, so the actual total probability must equal 100%.
The extra percentage is called the sportsbook’s overround. It shows that the prices include a margin for the operator.
It should not be treated as a guaranteed 7.8% profit for the sportsbook on every possible outcome. The amount a book earns depends on how much money is wagered on each team and how the prices move.
The important point for a player is simpler: sportsbook odds are not the same as fair probabilities. The margin is already included in the numbers.
Cleveland made the biggest move
The Guardians are the clear mover on the board.
On October 8, before Game 4 of the Division Series, DraftKings listed Cleveland at +2000 to win the World Series.
At that price, a $100 wager would have made a $2,000 profit and returned $2,100.
Cleveland then completed its comeback against Chicago, winning three consecutive games after falling behind 2-0 in the series.
By Sunday morning, the Guardians had shortened to +650.
The potential profit on a $100 wager dropped from $2,000 to $650 because Cleveland was now one of only four teams left.
The raw implied probability moved from approximately 4.8% at +2000 to 13.3% at +650.
That is what repricing looks like in a futures market. The team did not slowly become more talented over three days. Its path to the championship became much shorter.
For another comparison, FanDuel had Cleveland at +1400 on October 9. That difference also shows why prices should be compared between regulated sportsbooks.
The other three teams moved very little over the same period. The Dodgers remained at +125. Tampa Bay stayed at +300. Milwaukee moved from +310 to +300.
Cleveland changed the board because Cleveland was the only remaining team still facing elimination.
Dodgers and Brewers open the NLCS tonight
The National League Championship Series begins Sunday at 8 p.m. ET in Milwaukee.
Tarik Skubal is scheduled to start for Los Angeles against Jacob Misiorowski.
Skubal is a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner. Misiorowski is 24 years old and has been extremely effective against the Dodgers, recording a 1.59 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 career innings against them.
The series is a rematch of the 2025 NLCS, which Los Angeles swept.
The Dodgers went on to win their second consecutive World Series. They are now trying to become the first team to win three straight championships since the New York Yankees won from 1998 through 2000.
Milwaukee presents a serious challenge.
The Brewers finished with a franchise-record 103 victories, giving them the best record in baseball. They also won four of their seven regular-season games against Los Angeles.
The Dodgers may be the shortest-priced team on the futures board, but Milwaukee earned home-field advantage and has already shown it can beat Los Angeles.
Tampa Bay waits for Cleveland
The American League Championship Series begins Monday at 8 p.m. ET in St. Petersburg.
Tampa Bay has not played since Wednesday after sweeping the Yankees in three games. New York never held a lead during the entire series.
The Rays finished the regular season with the best record in the American League. They now enter the ALCS rested and with their pitching staff lined up.
Cleveland arrives by a much more difficult route.
The Guardians played five games against Chicago and faced elimination three times. Their pitchers recorded 19 strikeouts in Game 3 and then set the nine-inning postseason record with 21 in Game 5.
That pitching carried Cleveland through the comeback. The next question is how quickly the staff can recover before facing Tampa Bay.
The regular-season matchup favoured the Rays. Tampa Bay won five of six games against Cleveland and recorded three shutouts.
Cleveland now has to prove that its Division Series comeback was not the end of its run.
What the board is saying
The Dodgers are the only team priced close to even money, which makes them the clear favourite.
Milwaukee and Tampa Bay share the second-shortest price. Cleveland is the longshot, but +650 is very different from the +2000 available only a few days earlier.
None of these numbers predicts exactly what will happen.
They show the current cost of backing each team after accounting for the remaining matchups, home-field advantage, pitching plans, recent results and money entering the market.
The board will move again as soon as the NLCS begins.
A strong Dodgers performance could shorten their price. A Milwaukee victory could change the order at the top. Pitching news in the American League could move Tampa Bay or Cleveland before their first game even begins.
Four teams remain, but the prices will not stand still.
DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and bet365 are listed by iGaming Ontario as regulated sportsbooks available to eligible players physically located in Ontario. Regulated options differ by province — check what is available where you are.
You must be 18 or older to gamble in Alberta. Futures wagers can remain open for weeks or months, and most do not win. Never wager more than you can afford to lose.
This article explains the market and its numbers. It is not a betting recommendation.
Sources and method
World Series futures read from DraftKings Sportsbook’s public MLB futures page on 11 October 2026. Game results and pitching lines checked against the cited sources. Facts checked 11 October 2026.
World Series 2026 champion futures, DraftKings Sportsbook, 11 October 2026 ↗
Guardians complete ALDS comeback, Game 5 shutout (BusinessWorld, 11 Oct 2026) ↗
Brewers’ franchise-record 103-win season (Dairyland Sentinel) ↗
Rays won five of six regular-season games vs Guardians (SI) ↗